The decline in GDP could reach 12.4% this year, according to the ministry

The bleakest forecasts are in line with the forecasts of former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, who earlier this month forecast a decline of more than 10%, the largest decline in gross domestic product since 1994.

According to the same document, the Ministry of Economy forecasts growth of 1.3% in 2023, 4.6% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. Inflation, which had already climbed to 17.62% on 15 April, would should accelerate to 22.6%. Finally, oil production could fall by 17% in 2022, with oil and gas exports expected to decline.

Russia’s central bank raised its rates from 9.5% to 20% at the end of February as part of an emergency plan. On 8 April, the key rate was reduced to 17%, an unplanned measure.

Analysts polled by Reuters now expect a further rate cut of 200 basis points to 15% at the bank’s next rate meeting on Friday.

Capital investment is expected to decline by 25.4-31.8% after growing by 7.7% in 2021. Real disposable income – a very sensitive metric for Russia, especially given rising prices affecting living standards – could, according to conservatives. in 2009 fall by 9.7%. ministry estimate.

The World Bank predicted that Russia’s GDP would fall by 11.2% this year due to Western sanctions imposed on Russian banks, state-owned enterprises and other institutions.

(Reuters report, French version by Augustin Turpin, edited by Jean-Michel Bélot)

Elliot Frost

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